US GDP growth in Q1 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 55% across 8 contracts. Kalshi at 90%, Polymarket at 20% — a 70pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
90%
4 contracts
Polymarket
20%
4 contracts
Cross-venue gap
70pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
8 contracts
Closes
Jan 31, 2027
238 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 90¢ · Polymarket 20¢ · 70pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (20¢, 4 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (90¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
4 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 27% of their title tokens — “Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2” vs “Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2
Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.6%?: Above 2.6%
KXESGDPYOYF-26JUN25-T2.6
Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.0%?: Above 2.0%
KXESGDPYOYF-26JUN25-T2.0
Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.2%?: Above 2.2%
KXESGDPYOYF-26JUN25-T2.2
Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.4%?: Above 2.4%
KXESGDPYOYF-26JUN25-T2.4
Cluster 2
Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026
Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026: 6.0-7.0%
0xe531b0…8c27
Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026: <0%
0x426e80…dbcd
Cluster 3
2026 World GDP Growth: 3.3%
2026 World GDP Growth: 3.3%
0xb8e453…b627
Cluster 4
Negative GDP growth in 2026
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
0xd8c1b0…edf1
Analysis
This contract predicts whether US GDP expanded less than 1.0% in the first quarter of 2026. The 43% aggregate probability reflects meaningful disagreement across venues: Kalshi traders price it at 58%, while Polymarket participants estimate 23%, a 35-percentage-point gap suggesting different interpretations of recent economic data. The probability hinges on labor market strength, consumer spending patterns, and Fed policy decisions made in late 2025 and early 2026. The single largest catalyst for resolving this uncertainty is the official GDP report released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, typically arriving in late April or early May for Q1 data. This timing means the contract may already reflect preliminary estimates, though revisions occur in subsequent months and could alter the final outcome.
- ›Q1 2026 GDP is measurable quarterly growth data with a clear numerical threshold (1.0%) published by the BEA, making the outcome binary and verifiable
- ›Kalshi's 35-point premium over Polymarket suggests either different trader bases, risk preferences, or information sets interpreting the same economic conditions differently
- ›The contract references a quarterly figure already in the recent past (May 2026 is post-Q1), indicating markets may be pricing incomplete preliminary data subject to future revisions
- ›Labor market conditions and consumer spending in January-March 2026 are the primary economic drivers; weakness in either would push probability higher
- ›The 58% Kalshi price indicates near-even odds on the slow-growth scenario among professional traders, reflecting genuine uncertainty rather than consensus
What moved the line
- Jun 16.0-7.0%↑16pp13→29¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 23.3%↑13pp8→21¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 63.3%↓7pp21→14¢ · Polymarket
- May 31<0%↑7pp22→29¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 5Above 2.6%↓4pp74→70¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
- Will the Truflation US CPI Housing Inflation Index on Jun 5, 2026 be above -0.08%last 3% · 1d
- Will Euro area inflation rate YoY flash for April 2026 be above 2.7%Above 2.7%last 86% · 4d
- Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?: 1.9%–2.2%last 48% · 7d
- Will Euro area GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 1.6%last 61% · 8d
- Will France inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 be above 1.9%Above 1.9%last 97% · 8d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in recession.
In recession
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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