Satoshi Nakamoto for Nothing Ever Happens
Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto is priced at 93¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 92¢ bid, 94¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
93¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Satoshi moves any Bitcoin - Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”. 1. Satoshi moves any Bitcoin This market will resolve to “Something” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time during this market's above-specified time frame. The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources. 2. Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi This market will resolve to "Something" if definitive evidence confirming that Jeffrey Epstein is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public during this market's above-specified time frame. Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence. If Satoshi Nakamoto is conclusively identified as a group or collective rather than a single individual, definitive evidence that Jeffrey Epstein was a member of that group will qualify. Unverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcome
Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$9K
Identifier
0xb00e791c...58f7
Jun 8, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 7m ago
Implied probability
Bid
92¢
Ask
94¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$38
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$9K
Orderbook snapshot
92 / 94¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Satoshi moves any Bitcoin - Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”. 1. Satoshi moves any Bitcoin This market will resolve to “Something” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time during this market's above-specified time frame. The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources. 2. Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi This market will resolve to "Something" if definitive evidence confirming that Jeffrey Epstein is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public during this market's above-specified time frame. Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence. If Satoshi Nakamoto is conclusively identified as a group or collective rather than a single individual, definitive evidence that Jeffrey Epstein was a member of that group will qualify. Unverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xb00e791c…58f7
Event family
Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$9K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto 93¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
maker
Score
0.295
Observability
none
Event type
cultural
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
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Event Probability API
Read 93% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.