SimpleFunctions

Satoshi Nakamoto for Nothing Ever Happens

Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto is priced at 94¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 92¢ bid, 95¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.

Price history

94¢ current

90¢95¢100¢
May 7, 2026Jun 5, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Satoshi moves any Bitcoin - Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”. 1. Satoshi moves any Bitcoin This market will resolve to “Something” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time during this market's above-specified time frame. The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources. 2. Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi This market will resolve to "Something" if definitive evidence confirming that Jeffrey Epstein is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public during this market's above-specified time frame. Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence. If Satoshi Nakamoto is conclusively identified as a group or collective rather than a single individual, definitive evidence that Jeffrey Epstein was a member of that group will qualify. Unverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome

Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto

Rank

Standalone

Leader

Range

Family volume

$9K

Identifier

0xb00e791c...58f7

Jun 6, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 16m ago

Implied probability

94¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 6, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 16m ago

Bid

92¢

Ask

95¢

Spread

Reported volume

$9K

Family rank

Standalone

Standalone contract

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Family volume

$9K

Orderbook snapshot

92 / 95¢

Polymarket
3¢ spread
BidSize
92¢86
91¢166
81¢300
80¢37
70¢128
64¢256
49¢18
48¢384
AskSize
95¢14
97¢30

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Satoshi moves any Bitcoin - Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”. 1. Satoshi moves any Bitcoin This market will resolve to “Something” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time during this market's above-specified time frame. The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources. 2. Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi This market will resolve to "Something" if definitive evidence confirming that Jeffrey Epstein is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public during this market's above-specified time frame. Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence. If Satoshi Nakamoto is conclusively identified as a group or collective rather than a single individual, definitive evidence that Jeffrey Epstein was a member of that group will qualify. Unverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Identifier

0xb00e791c…58f7

SF Signal
SF Index
1375.60
Regime
maker

Event family

Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$9K

Outcomes

1

Highest price

Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto 94¢

Current share

100%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

maker

Score

0.295

Observability

none

Event type

cultural

Full indicator table

11.2%
2751.2%
Adj IY
1376%
16

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.