NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader sits at 47% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 30%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Alex Bores
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
30¢
Micah Lasher
Spread
17pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jun 23, 2026
45 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner
Analysis
The NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner market shows the current frontrunner at 39% probability of winning the nomination, while a close challenger holds 34%. This reflects moderate confidence rather than a clear favorite, suggesting the race remains competitive. The outcome depends largely on voter turnout patterns, endorsement consolidation among progressive and moderate wings of the party, and fundraising momentum in the weeks before voting. The primary election date—scheduled for June 2026—will be the decisive catalyst that resolves this market, though early voting patterns and final polling in May could narrow uncertainty beforehand. Until then, any major endorsements, debate performance assessments, or campaign developments could shift probabilities materially between the leading contenders.
- ›Current leader at 39% vs runner-up at 34% indicates a 5-point separation with substantial remaining uncertainty
- ›Polymarket contracts show modest trading volume ($816 24h on the top related race) suggesting limited market depth and potential for larger probability swings on new information
- ›The multi-outcome winner-take-all structure means support is distributed across at least three candidates, with the leader holding less than 40% of total probability mass
- ›June 2026 primary date creates a defined resolution window within 4 weeks, making near-term developments (endorsements, polling releases) key probability movers
- ›Proximity to related NY congressional primaries (NY-07 at 27¢) suggests broader patterns in regional Democratic preferences that may influence NY-12 dynamics
What moved the line
- May 2Micah Lasher↓7pp47→40¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Alex Bores↑7pp35→42¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Jack Schlossberg↑5pp17→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Micah Lasher↓3pp40→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Jack Schlossberg↓3pp22→19¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.