Which company has the best AI model?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 25% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
25%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+1pp
27h ago
24h volume
$110K
9 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
117 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 30% of their title tokens — “Best AI on Dec 31, 2026” vs “Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Best AI on Dec 31, 2026
Cluster 2
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: OpenAI
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-OPEN
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Anthropic
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-ANTH
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: xAI
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-XAI
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Google
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-GOOG
Cluster 3
Will Los Angeles D have the best record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season
What moved the line
- Sep 5OpenAI↓12pp29→17¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 5Anthropic↑11pp58→69¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 2Los Angeles D↓9pp36→27¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 4Anthropic↑8pp50→58¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 4OpenAI↓7pp36→29¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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