Which company has the best AI model?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 19 contracts. Kalshi at 24%, Polymarket at 35% — a 11pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
24%
10 contracts
Polymarket
35%
9 contracts
Cross-venue gap
11pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$137K
19 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
208 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 24¢ · Polymarket 35¢ · 11pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (24¢, 10 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (35¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
6 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Which compan” vs “Best AI in Dec 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Which compan
Which company has best AI model end of June?: OpenAI
0x734c6c…eee7
Which company has best AI model end of June?: Anthropic
0xa4d726…9cca
Which company has best AI model end of June?: Google
0x0bd1b8…76e4
Which company has second best AI model end of June?: Google
0x9a43c9…e5f3
Which company has second best AI model end of June?: Anthropic
0xd0e97d…c55a
Which company has second best AI model end of June?: OpenAI
0x06a7a2…02c6
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?: OpenAI
0x1ea03c…74a4
Cluster 2
Best AI in Dec 2026
Best AI in Dec 2026?: Muse Spark
KXLLM1-26DEC31-META
Best AI in Dec 2026?: Claude
KXLLM1-26DEC31-A
Best AI in Dec 2026?: ChatGPT
KXLLM1-26DEC31-OAI
Best AI in Dec 2026?: Gemini
KXLLM1-26DEC31-GOOG
Best AI in Dec 2026?: Grok
KXLLM1-26DEC31-XAI
Cluster 3
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Google
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-GOOG
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Anthropic
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-ANTH
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: xAI
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-XAI
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: OpenAI
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-OPEN
Cluster 4
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: No IPO by December 31, 2026
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: No IPO by December 31, 2026
0x3849e1…dc5e
Cluster 5
OpenAI IPO by
OpenAI IPO by...?: December 31, 2026
0x66f5b8…3432
Cluster 6
Will Los Angeles D have the best record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season
What moved the line
- Jun 6Google↑20pp7→27¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 6Anthropic↓15pp88→73¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1Anthropic↑4pp82→86¢ · Polymarket
- May 31No IPO by December 31, 2026↓4pp32→28¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1Anthropic↑4pp54→58¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in technology
- How many SpaceX launches in May?: 14 or morelast 90% · 4d
- Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026last 90% · 8d
- Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPOlast 85% · 12d
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: <500Blast 4% · 12d
- SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes): 1T+last 97% · 13d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In technology
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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