OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 1.25T–1.5T
Leader sits at 26% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 14%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
1.25T–1.5T
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
14¢
1.25T–1.5T
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$32
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
575 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 1.25T–1.5T
Analysis
This probability reflects traders' assessment that OpenAI will complete an IPO and close with a market capitalization between $1.25 trillion and $1.5 trillion. The 19% probability is relatively low, suggesting the market views either an IPO at this valuation range as unlikely, or that if an IPO occurs, the closing price will fall outside this band. Related contracts show traders place higher probability (73%) on no IPO by end of 2026, and only 11% on a valuation above $1.5 trillion. The primary driver is OpenAI's timeline: the company has not announced IPO plans, and going public requires SEC filing, investor roadshow, and market conditions. A major catalyst would be an official IPO announcement or regulatory filing, which would rapidly resolve the timing uncertainty and shift valuations into measurable outcomes.
- ›OpenAI has not publicly announced IPO plans or filed preliminary prospectus materials as of May 2026, constraining near-term probability
- ›Market-wide volatility and tech-sector valuations directly affect IPO execution timing and closing prices for high-growth companies
- ›Competing contracts price 73% probability of no IPO by December 31, 2026, implying traders expect either delay or a different valuation band if one occurs
- ›The $1.25T–$1.5T range represents a specific narrow band; valuations above $1.5T and below $1.25T carry higher cumulative probability in the contract set
- ›Historical precedent: recent mega-cap tech IPOs and SPACs show final closing valuations often diverge from filing range estimates based on market demand and lock-up expiration
What moved the line
- Jun 21.25T–1.5T↓8pp24→16¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 11.25T–1.5T↑7pp17→24¢ · Polymarket
- May 311.25T–1.5T↓6pp23→17¢ · Polymarket
- May 301.25T–1.5T↓4pp27→23¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in ai tech
- How many SpaceX launches in May?: 14 or morelast 90% · 1d
- Largest Company end of May?: NVIDIAlast 97% · 2d
- What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $240last 3% · 4d
- Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026last 90% · 5d
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above ___ end of April?: $200last 5% · 5d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (26% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ai tech
Related reading
AI Model Race Intensifies as Anthropic Gains on OpenAI
The AI leadership race is heating up with Anthropic's Claude 5 release expectation jumping 16¢ to 38¢ for a June 30 launch, while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 probability dropped 8¢ to 79¢. Markets now favor Anthropic to have the best AI model by end of June at 84¢. The 'Best AI in Jun' contract trades at 63¢ for Anthropic vs 16¢ for Google.
OpenAI IPO Fading: 'No IPO by 2026' Surges to 66¢
OpenAI's IPO probability continues declining as markets price in long-term privacy, while Databricks emerges as the likely AI bellwether for a potential tech listing window reopening.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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