OpenAI’s market cap between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day
1.25T–1.5T is priced at 13¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 11¢ bid, 13¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 7 inside OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap.
Price history
13¢ current
+10¢Contract brief
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Outcome
1.25T–1.5T
Rank
#3 of 7
Leader
No IPO by December 31, 2026 30¢
Range
6¢-30¢
Family volume
$1.7M
Identifier
0xa281783f...7c09
Jun 7, 2026, 4:08 PM UTC · 28m ago
Implied probability
Bid
11¢
Ask
13¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$124
Family rank
#3 of 7
7 outcomes · OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$1.7M
Orderbook snapshot
11 / 13¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
0xa281783f…7c09
Event family
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1.7M
Outcomes
7
Highest price
No IPO by December 31, 2026 30¢
Current share
29%
No IPO by December 31, 2026
polymarket · 0x3849e1d62e0807801913d3e2427e8caf3cc6dd1c8ef42d8d5c08c6f9c449dc5e
1.5T+
polymarket · 0x4a8005d19b41af72c1cd5c619640d9d51da548dd7c3544b12ae0c520d9e6805b
1.25T–1.5T
polymarket · 0xa281783fc73b1a6927a301ee34cd90795470dc64b500673e445ba5e54f697c09
<500B
polymarket · 0x08b39100a4d3d6ad1099e076fb69f781313c5b16975adf189d63542bd1ecca04
500–750B
polymarket · 0x3f9f68feccc892303834833665bf204632438b028254fc2d5bceea757ff61ed3
1T–1.25T
polymarket · 0x602a7a6c7d65b55932e6cf8b6904cb7acdc728ca423ffd3ccb1988dd5501de13
750B–1T
polymarket · 0xb77424a53b7480164118374fb5e97b859bd12b696b1aea55d383ce798c060cf4
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.