What is the current probability for "Ottawa wins by over 1.5 goals?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 30¢ (30% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 9, 2026. 16 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Ottawa wins by over 1.5 goals?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 8149.2% and 648.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Ottawa wins by over 1.5 goals?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Ottawa wins by over 1.5 goals?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 30% probability that Ottawa wins by over 1.5 goals?. This contract trades at 30¢ on Kalshi, closing May 9, 2026. This market exhibits extreme mispricing with the Yes contract trading at 0¢ despite a 20-day window until resolution and an upcoming NHL game between Carolina and Ottawa.

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30¢mid

Bid/Ask 23/36¢·Spread 13¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes May 9, 2026·16d remaining

KXNHLSPREAD-26APR25CAROTT-OTT1

7-day price241 snapshots · 5 regime

37¢23¢ current

Apr 184¢Apr 23

Analysis

3d ago

This market exhibits extreme mispricing with the Yes contract trading at 0¢ despite a 20-day window until resolution and an upcoming NHL game between Carolina and Ottawa. The astronomical 34,975.8% implied yield on the Yes side combined with zero volume and open interest suggests this is a stale or illiquid listing rather than an active market reflecting genuine probability assessment. The 50¢ spread, 7,569% realized volatility, and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 19 indicate severe pricing dysfunction, though the modest 7-day price movement (4¢ to 5¢) and neutral regime suggest the market hasn't attracted recent attention or correction.

Resolution rules

If Ottawa wins by over 1.5 goals in the Carolina at Ottawa professional hockey game originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 8149.2%

IY (No) 648.3%

Adj IY 4075%

CRI 4

Overround -0.4%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	8149.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	648.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	4075%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

13¢

Computed

4/23/2026, 10:04:52 PM

Indicators computed 4/23/2026, 9:53:13 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNHLSPREAD-26APR25CAROTT-OTT1 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →