What is the current probability for "Ottawa wins by over 2.5 goals?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 14¢ (14% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 9, 2026. 14 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Ottawa wins by over 2.5 goals?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 17481.5% and 390.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Ottawa wins by over 2.5 goals?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Ottawa wins by over 2.5 goals?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Ottawa wins by over 2.5 goals?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing May 9, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making it effectively non-tradeable despite the 61¢ spread.

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14¢

Bid/Ask 8/14¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $1,875.09·OI $1,872·Closes May 9, 2026·14d remaining

KXNHLSPREAD-26APR25CAROTT-OTT2

7-day price263 snapshots · 5 regime

17¢7¢ current

Apr 181¢Apr 25

Analysis

7d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making it effectively non-tradeable despite the 61¢ spread. The 0¢ price implies the market maker has assigned virtually no probability to Ottawa winning by 2.5+ goals, which is plausible for a regular-season matchup but seems overly pessimistic given that blowout wins occur regularly in hockey. With the game originally scheduled for April 25, 2026 and closure on May 9, 2026, there's uncertainty about whether this game has already occurred or been postponed, which may explain the complete lack of trading activity.

Resolution rules

If Ottawa wins by over 2.5 goals in the Carolina at Ottawa professional hockey game originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 17481.5%

IY (No) 390.3%

Adj IY 7396%

CRI 7

Overround -0.1%

LAS 0.15

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	17481.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	390.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	7396%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.15	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/25/2026, 7:46:56 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/25/2026, 7:38:50 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNHLSPREAD-26APR25CAROTT-OTT2 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →