SimpleFunctions
PolymarketMay 19, 202610 days left

Will Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?

This contract is priced at 39¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 38¢ bid, 40¢ ask, 2¢ spread.

Implied probability

39¢
$8K volume
$24K liquidity
20% of event volume

Event outcomes

7

Family volume

$41K

Best sibling

Sharif Street 60¢

Ticker

0xdf9c6d40…925c

Market snapshot

Chris Rabb in market context.

This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?. The displayed quote is 39¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports reported volume of $8K. In the PA-03 Democratic Primary Winner family, this outcome ranks #2 of 7 by current quote across 7 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 5:53 AM UTC.

Outcome

Chris Rabb

Family rank

#2 of 7

Venue

Polymarket

Current quote

39¢

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until May 19, 2026

Reported volume

$8K

Family context

7 outcomes · PA-03 Democratic Primary Winner

Quote range

0¢-60¢

Family leader

Sharif Street 60¢

Last updated

May 9, 2026, 5:53 AM UTC · 5m ago

Venue identifier: 0xdf9c6d4030bc0b96634a279fddfdbd8316ed42d217118f9e46205ac182ae925c. Family volume: $41K.

Price history

39¢ current

+11¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 8, 2026May 9, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

38 / 40¢

Polymarket
2¢ spread
BidSize
38¢200
38¢250
37¢80
37¢200
36¢5
30¢100
17¢926
17¢278
AskSize
40¢471
40¢39
40¢44
40¢63
41¢40
41¢37
41¢200
41¢40

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

May 19, 2026

Identifier

0xdf9c6d40…925c

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

5852.4%

IY (No)

2392.2%

Adj IY

5852%

CRI

2

RV

331%

VR

0.43

Regime

neutral

Score

0.432

Observability

medium

Event type

unknown

Full indicator table

5852.4%
2392.2%
Adj IY
5852%
2
RV
331%
VR
0.43
IAR
1.6/h
Overround
0.0%

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