PA-03 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader sits at 60% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 40%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Sharif Street
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
40¢
Chris Rabb
Spread
20pp
contested
24h volume
$73
thin orderbook
Closes
May 19, 2026
10 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
PA-03 Democratic Primary Winner
Analysis
The 49% probability for Chris Rabb indicates market participants view him as the narrow frontrunner but with substantial uncertainty in Pennsylvania's 3rd District Democratic primary. This outcome-dependent market reflects competing support among multiple viable candidates, with Sharif Street at 42% representing the closest challenger. The primary outcome will depend on voter turnout patterns, endorsement consolidation, and whether any candidate can build a decisive coalition before election day. The resolution hinges on actual primary results, which will definitively determine the Democratic nominee for this Philadelphia-area seat.
- ›Chris Rabb's current polling position relative to Sharif Street and other declared candidates
- ›Endorsement patterns from party establishment figures and organized labor in the district
- ›Voter turnout composition, particularly across different neighborhood and demographic segments
- ›Campaign spending and field organization capacity compared among top contenders
- ›Any candidate withdrawals or consolidation that could shift vote concentration before primary day
What moved the line
- May 6Sharif Street↑14pp43→57¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Chris Rabb↓13pp50→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Chris Rabb↓7pp57→50¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Ala Stanford↓6pp12→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Sharif Street↑5pp38→43¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
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- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.