Will Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?
This contract is priced at 40¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 39¢ bid, 41¢ ask, 2¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
7
Family volume
$45K
Best sibling
Sharif Street 57¢
Ticker
0xdf9c6d40…925c
Market snapshot
Chris Rabb in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?. The displayed quote is 40¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $268. In the PA-03 Democratic Primary Winner family, this outcome ranks #2 of 7 by current quote across 7 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 13, 2026, 4:53 PM UTC.
Outcome
Chris Rabb
Family rank
#2 of 7
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
40¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until May 19, 2026
24h volume
$268
Family context
7 outcomes · PA-03 Democratic Primary Winner
Quote range
0¢-57¢
Family leader
Sharif Street 57¢
Last updated
May 13, 2026, 4:53 PM UTC · 5m ago
Venue identifier: 0xdf9c6d4030bc0b96634a279fddfdbd8316ed42d217118f9e46205ac182ae925c. Family volume: $45K.
Price history
40¢ current
+19¢Orderbook snapshot
39 / 41¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 19, 2026
Identifier
0xdf9c6d40…925c
Event family
PA-03 Democratic Primary Winner.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$45K
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Sharif Street 57¢
Current share
21%
Chris Rabb
polymarket · 0xdf9c6d4030bc0b96634a279fddfdbd8316ed42d217118f9e46205ac182ae925c
Sharif Street
polymarket · 0xb8a3ea065baae7536ca832160dd9851a06645b7de509eedec34be15c9e18d850
David Oxman
polymarket · 0x9b94d1a0adb0df83276968f5bc772cb6de5ed50b2e2c8babdcca4defeb7160ce
Ala Stanford
polymarket · 0x331e16ffd77fadb2e80aaf59a18e497faac433311e387f0abcc3c7fb1f170069
Gabriel Caceres
polymarket · 0x025e42d51c3eca3fb1d0a1fe2c3125d2dc9852ac9a3b78759d94cb879421a4ea
Robin Toldens
polymarket · 0x75a1aa11d9cdadccb695ad20170ae9e5fe07da5cace81302311c0a7148ea030f
Morgan Cephas
polymarket · 0x2b6b3b405a94ded7154253b7d99ffd9d5ccdd25824e4ff784e39a157995328a9
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.432
Observability
medium
Event type
unknown
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.