Pacifica FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Pacifica FDV above $300M one day after launch?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 740% implied yield on the Yes side despite only 16% probability, suggesting severe underpricing relative to risk or potential information asymmetry about Pacifica's launch timeline.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 740% implied yield on the Yes side despite only 16% probability, suggesting severe underpricing relative to risk or potential information asymmetry about Pacifica's launch timeline. The zero 24-hour volume combined with an $11.4K open interest and 8¢ spread indicates dangerously low liquidity that could cause significant slippage, while the 470% realized volatility and 1.84 vol ratio signal this is a highly unstable market prone to sharp repricing. With 259 days to expiration and a neutral regime, the market appears to be pricing in either extreme skepticism about Pacifica reaching $300M FDV post-launch or potential delays/cancellations, making this a high-risk speculation with limited exit opportunities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Pacifica's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Pacifica (https://x.com/pacifica_fi) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x5fb770e75069a3d1bd86f9458b4e806d522f35874bcc4983d5d3bce77baabcd0 yes 100