What is the current probability for "Pro basketball top 5 draft picks in 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 47¢ (47% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on July 14, 2026. 83 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Pro basketball top 5 draft picks in 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 459.1% and 423.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Pro basketball top 5 draft picks in 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Pro basketball top 5 draft picks in 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 47% probability that Pro basketball top 5 draft picks in 2026?. This contract trades at 47¢ on Kalshi, closing July 14, 2026. This market shows a sharp 18% price rally over seven days to 66¢, suggesting growing confidence in Acuff Jr.'s top-5 prospects, though zero 24-hour volume indicates thin liquidity and potential difficulty executing larger positions.

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47¢

Bid/Ask 49/62¢·Spread 13¢·Vol $140.27·OI $14,511.27·Closes Jul 14, 2026·83d remaining

KXNBADRAFTTOP-26-5-DACU

7-day price50 snapshots · 10 regime

65¢49¢ current

Apr 847¢Apr 22

Analysis

3d ago

This market shows a sharp 18% price rally over seven days to 66¢, suggesting growing confidence in Acuff Jr.'s top-5 prospects, though zero 24-hour volume indicates thin liquidity and potential difficulty executing larger positions. The asymmetric implied yields (228% for Yes vs. 787% for No) reflect the tight 1¢ spread and illiquidity, creating outsized return profiles that may not represent true market consensus. With 86 days to the June 2026 draft and only $14,575 open interest, this market lacks depth despite the recent price momentum, making it vulnerable to sharp reversals on draft-related news.

Resolution rules

If Darius Acuff Jr. is drafted top 5 in the 2026 Pro Basketball draft, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 459.1%

IY (No) 423.8%

Adj IY 169%

CRI 1

Overround 4.1%

LAS 0.27

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	459.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	423.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	169%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	4.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.27	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/22/2026, 8:07:24 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 8:08:23 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNBADRAFTTOP-26-5-DACU yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →