What is the current probability for "Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 35¢ (35% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 23, 2027. 275 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 309.7% and 56.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 35% probability that Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games. This contract trades at 35¢ on Kalshi, closing January 23, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a wide 14¢ spread, suggesting minimal trader interest in whether Houston plays 5+ primetime games next season.

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35¢mid

Bid/Ask 30/40¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Jan 23, 2027·275d remaining

KXNFLPRIMETIME-27-HOU

7-day price19 snapshots · 2 regime

30¢30¢ current

Apr 924¢Apr 19

Analysis

6d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a wide 14¢ spread, suggesting minimal trader interest in whether Houston plays 5+ primetime games next season. The 0¢ current price implies near-zero probability, yet the implied yield on "Yes" reaches 368.9%, indicating substantial mispricing if Houston actually receives that many primetime slots—a realistic outcome for a major market team. With 282 days to expiration and only modest recent price movement (24¢ to 26¢), this appears to be a dead market that may not attract sufficient liquidity for meaningful position-taking.

Resolution rules

If Houston plays in at least 5 primetime games during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 309.7%

IY (No) 56.9%

Adj IY 155%

CRI 2

Overround 11.9%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	309.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	56.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	155%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	11.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

10¢

Computed

4/23/2026, 4:10:01 PM

Indicators computed 4/23/2026, 4:08:13 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNFLPRIMETIME-27-HOU yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →