What is the current probability for "Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 8¢ (8% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 23, 2027. 275 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2079.7% and 8.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing January 23, 2027. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1¢ Yes price implying only 1% probability that Miami gets 5+ primetime games in 2026-27, yet the implied yield on Yes reaches an extraordinary 2030.4%.

███░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

8¢

Bid/Ask 6/11¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $0·OI $558.28·Closes Jan 23, 2027·275d remaining

KXNFLPRIMETIME-27-MIA

7-day price47 snapshots · 2 regime

29¢6¢ current

Apr 82¢Apr 23

Analysis

6d ago

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1¢ Yes price implying only 1% probability that Miami gets 5+ primetime games in 2026-27, yet the implied yield on Yes reaches an extraordinary 2030.4%. The 16¢ spread and minimal $489.28 daily volume suggest severe illiquidity is driving the distortion, making this a classic thin-market anomaly where the tiny position size may not reflect true consensus probability. With 282 days to expiry and Miami historically receiving significant primetime slots as a major market franchise, the cliff risk index of 16 warrants caution, but the risk-reward appears heavily skewed toward Yes given the structural underpricing.

Resolution rules

If Miami plays in at least 5 primetime games during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2079.7%

IY (No) 8.5%

Adj IY 1040%

CRI 16

Overround 11.9%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2079.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	8.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1040%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	16	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	11.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/23/2026, 4:10:56 PM

Indicators computed 4/23/2026, 4:08:13 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNFLPRIMETIME-27-MIA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →