What is the current probability for "Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 91¢ (91% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 23, 2027. 275 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 35.3% and 499.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 91% probability that Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games. This contract trades at 91¢ on Kalshi, closing January 23, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $172 open interest, making the 91¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 14¢ spread.

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91¢

Bid/Ask 79/91¢·Spread 12¢·Vol $0·OI $172·Closes Jan 23, 2027·275d remaining

KXNFLPRIMETIME-27-NE

7-day price26 snapshots · 2 regime

90¢79¢ current

Apr 975¢Apr 23

Analysis

6d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $172 open interest, making the 91¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 14¢ spread. The asymmetric implied yields (38.7% for Yes versus 434% for No) suggest the market is pricing in very high confidence in New England receiving 5+ primetime slots, yet the sharp 13¢ price decline over seven days (90¢ to 77¢) indicates recent skepticism that contradicts the current 91% probability. With 282 days until expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 3, this appears to be a thin, potentially mispriced market where the extreme No-side yield may reflect genuine uncertainty about primetime allocations rather than true market consensus.

Resolution rules

If New England plays in at least 5 primetime games during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 35.3%

IY (No) 499.4%

Adj IY 250%

CRI 4

Overround 11.9%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	35.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	499.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	250%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	11.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

12¢

Computed

4/23/2026, 4:11:28 PM

Indicators computed 4/23/2026, 4:08:13 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNFLPRIMETIME-27-NE yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →