Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing January 23, 2027. This illiquid micro-market on the New York Jets' primetime schedule shows extreme asymmetry, with a 1722% implied yield on Yes contracts versus just 9.8% on No, suggesting severe underpricing of the Yes outcome relative to historical precedent.
Analysis
This illiquid micro-market on the New York Jets' primetime schedule shows extreme asymmetry, with a 1722% implied yield on Yes contracts versus just 9.8% on No, suggesting severe underpricing of the Yes outcome relative to historical precedent. The $171 open interest and zero 24-hour volume indicate virtually no trading activity, making the 14¢ price potentially unreliable; the wide 12¢ spread further reflects thin liquidity. With 282 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 13, this appears to be a speculative niche market where the pricing may not reflect true probability given the Jets' typical primetime allocation.
Resolution rules
If New York J plays in at least 5 primetime games during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNFLPRIMETIME-27-NYJ yes 100