Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games
Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games. This contract trades at 20¢ on Kalshi, closing January 23, 2027. This illiquid micro-market on Tampa Bay's 2026-27 primetime schedule shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the Yes side offering a striking 487.7% annualized return against just 34.5% for No, suggesting the 20¢ price may undervalue the probability given Tampa Bay's typical national TV exposure.
Analysis
This illiquid micro-market on Tampa Bay's 2026-27 primetime schedule shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the Yes side offering a striking 487.7% annualized return against just 34.5% for No, suggesting the 20¢ price may undervalue the probability given Tampa Bay's typical national TV exposure. The $5 open interest and $0 daily volume indicate virtually no trading activity, making the wide 12¢ spread a significant friction cost for any potential entry. With 282 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the modest 2¢ price movement over seven days reflects the market's dormancy rather than conviction, though the 4 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution on late-stage liquidity.
Resolution rules
If Tampa Bay plays in at least 5 primetime games during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNFLPRIMETIME-27-TB yes 100