J.D. Vance · Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. Vance is priced at 34¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 34¢ bid, 34¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside Republican Presidential Nominee 2028.
Price history
34¢ current
−16¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Outcome
J.D. Vance
Rank
#1 of 16
Leader
J.D. Vance 34¢
Range
1¢-34¢
Family volume
$435.4M
Identifier
0x18b1c135...f919
May 26, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
34¢
Ask
34¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$138K
Family rank
#1 of 16
16 outcomes · Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
Family volume
$435.4M
Orderbook snapshot
34 / 34¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
Identifier
0x18b1c135…f919
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 71¢, -37¢ versus this page.
Event family
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$435.4M
Outcomes
16
Highest price
J.D. Vance 34¢
Current share
3%
J.D. Vance
polymarket · 0x18b1c135d0a40c5894da9412e77311827d9caf16cf4cd6591b247a34730af919
Byron Donalds
polymarket · 0xd1747284d6048b2a3dcfbee489db405f36de18f9590197dd0e5c9f0c246bf050
Mike Pence
polymarket · 0x41c6341dd79903aca4bb0c29f5a7976946c3774d2fd72f38cbb7de7092144520
John Thune
polymarket · 0x7190eccbd0677d5d0ae8cdf598b37e945a346915c666dda11468dc9970657a56
Kristi Noem
polymarket · 0x5f1b1caf70eb994bfff2986727a05a3ac9f7ec8b0da4017f7732596d023e5a07
Tom Brady
polymarket · 0xf8dbde8b6e038775a673947e59da2de15a2127272b50b9877400fdbf7cfc3026
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
polymarket · 0x00ad3bb5284b0b2314b1a2d42812fe292f606619c6278bd95c9d905816c240f6
Elon Musk
polymarket · 0xfbb80ea5f8fc02ee7df8bd4f58790e1d04b874078a49a7b7028a74a2075100c9
Katie Britt
polymarket · 0x61a1278884fa70d68d4bcaaf72fad55bbdb063cac28c6947472ca91635fab10f
Kim Kardashian
polymarket · 0x414378275cb214b747245942be889ee1e077c56d1c00eb4d726629c95f22b5a5
Elise Stefanik
polymarket · 0x655b4bfdfa55a95c24d6e9bf7e7cd62f1b57da9a1f4c7f40f090b8ba847dffa2
Steve Bannon
polymarket · 0xd5659eea81cada0bac656f5a9099861786cbae6755e2e1ac2c9e9441908b551f
Greg Abbott
polymarket · 0x214093035e429b91df322bd20c55d9f611f741f67472a63f7623a9afc0cffa57
Josh Hawley
polymarket · 0x4d4bceee5f59f75230c6438f69fc913a6da7afa4098ce0734655045c02a730fc
Matt Gaetz
polymarket · 0xf2cea45ec282af4f302d2ab85ede73678cd692ebf8c3ab6d52bfa5e19f44c553
Rand Paul
polymarket · 0xd10bc768ede58b53ed400594240b0a0603134a32dab89ec823a18759cbc180ca
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome
When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.
Gavin Newsom December 2025: How California’s Governor Is Shaping the 2028 Presidential Odds
In-depth look at Gavin Newsom’s status in December 2025, his California record, and what prediction markets are signaling about his 2028 presidential chances.
Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State
Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Reflexivity Loops in Election Markets: When Price → Consensus → Price
Election prediction markets have a feedback loop where price becomes news becomes price. How the loop works, the 2024 case study, and how to size trades against it.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 34% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.