Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?

This market prices J.D. Vance's 2028 Republican primary run at 77% probability with a notably asymmetric risk profile—the "No" side offers 166.3% annualized yield versus just 20.5% for "Yes," reflecting the market's confidence in a Vance candidacy but limited upside for believers. The 6¢ spread and thin $5 daily volume suggest low liquidity despite $11.6k open interest, and the recent 4¢ price decline over seven days may indicate slight erosion in conviction as we approach the 625-day deadline. With moderate cliff risk (3/10) and neutral regime conditions, this appears fairly priced for a frontrunner scenario, though the extreme yield skew warrants caution about tail risk assumptions.

Resolution rules

If J.D. Vance announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

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