Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: J.D. Vance
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
31%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
1 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
887 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: J.D. Vance
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: J.D. Vance
0x18b1c1…f919
Analysis
J.D. Vance is currently priced at 39% probability of becoming the Republican presidential nominee in 2028, making him the frontrunner across prediction markets. This reflects his position as Vice President and typical advantages of an incumbent administration's heir apparent, but also genuine uncertainty about whether he will ultimately secure the nomination. The probability reflects tension between his institutional backing and consolidation of Republican support versus potential challenges from other candidates, primary dynamics, or unforeseen political developments over the next 18 months. The nomination will be determined through the 2028 primary season and Republican National Convention, with key early contests in Iowa and New Hampshire likely to clarify frontrunner status significantly. Current market pricing suggests meaningful but not dominant confidence in his nomination prospects.
- ›J.D. Vance holds the Vice Presidency, which historically provides substantial advantages for securing a party's presidential nomination when an incumbent president is term-limited
- ›Alternative candidates including Marco Rubio (21¢), Tucker Carlson (7¢), and Donald Trump Jr. (3¢) collectively command 31% probability, indicating fragmentation rather than coalescing support around a single challenger
- ›Trading volume on the Vance contract ($23,251 in 24h volume) is the second-highest among Republican nominee contracts, suggesting active reassessment and genuine disagreement among market participants
- ›No scheduled primary elections or major clarifying events occur until late 2027, meaning the probability may shift substantially based on interim political developments, endorsements, or candidate announcements
- ›The 2-point spread between the Polymarket (39¢) and Kalshi (37¢) contracts on Vance suggests minimal arbitrage opportunity and relatively consistent pricing across venues
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (31% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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