What is the current probability for "Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 92¢ (92% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 244 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 13.0% and 1717.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 92% probability that Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?. This contract trades at 92¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027.

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92¢

Bid/Ask 91/93¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $155.787·OI $21,589.865·Closes Jan 1, 2027·244d remaining

0xbd55722dfa97cf72e6853a23e96e950578324c2cc95b86b1024358792224efa0

7-day price150 snapshots · 66 regime

94¢92¢ current

Apr 850¢May 1

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Solstice's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Solstice (https://x.com/solsticefi) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 13.0%

IY (No) 1717.5%

Adj IY 859%

CRI 12

Overround 1.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	13.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1717.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	859%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	12	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

2¢

Computed

5/1/2026, 2:24:01 PM

Observability mediumEvent type financial

Indicators computed 5/1/2026, 2:23:10 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xbd55722dfa97cf72e6853a23e96e950578324c2cc95b86b1024358792224efa0 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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