Will Toulouse win?
Prediction markets currently give a 90% probability that Will Toulouse win?. This contract trades at 90¢ on Polymarket, closing May 2, 2026. This market exhibits severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and an extreme 88¢ spread despite $60.189 in open interest, suggesting the 50¢ midprice may not reflect true consensus.
Analysis
This market exhibits severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and an extreme 88¢ spread despite $60.189 in open interest, suggesting the 50¢ midprice may not reflect true consensus. The astronomical 2904.4% implied yield on both sides indicates the market is pricing in significant tail risk, likely related to the April 25 game potentially being postponed or canceled given the incomplete resolution criteria text. With only 13 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 1, this appears to be a distressed or potentially abandoned market where the stated game date may have already passed or the event status is uncertain.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 25 2026 If Toulouse wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to the outcome when the ball becomes dead after 80 minutes of regular play.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xb6f1d25ccfff1dbd0a16fe458d01b385d2bfe1d5cf59e6c14c259b5c2e6b36ea yes 100