US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

The market has surged 28% over seven days to 74¢, reflecting recent diplomatic momentum, though the 402.8% implied yield on "No" suggests traders view a deal as unlikely despite the high headline probability. The 113% realized volatility and 1.54 vol ratio indicate significant uncertainty beneath the surface, with the modest $15.8k daily volume and tight 2¢ spread providing reasonable liquidity for a binary event 258 days out. The extreme cliff risk index of 3 combined with 0.7 info arrivals per hour signals this market is highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, making the current 49.7% yes-side yield potentially attractive for risk-tolerant traders betting against the consensus.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

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