US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027

30-day trend

Analysis

This market reflects a roughly even-odds assessment of whether the US and Iran will reach a new nuclear agreement by the end of 2026. The 51% probability sits between the more pessimistic near-term contracts (9% for a deal before June, 26% by June 30) and longer-dated expectations, suggesting markets see limited momentum for imminent negotiations but acknowledge possibilities over the remaining months. The current level balances structural barriers—deep US-Iran tensions, domestic political constraints in both countries, and the contentious terms from previous negotiations—against potential diplomatic openings. Key uncertainties include whether either administration signals renewed willingness to negotiate, how regional conflicts evolve, and whether international mediators can broker terms acceptable to both sides. The gap between near-term and year-end probabilities implies markets expect any deal would require sustained diplomatic work beyond the immediate period.

• ›US domestic political calendar and leadership positions relative to when negotiations could realistically conclude
• ›Iran's willingness to return to negotiating table given previous agreement withdrawals and sanctions dynamics
• ›Status of regional conflicts (Gaza, Yemen, proxy tensions) and whether de-escalation occurs ahead of nuclear talks
• ›International mediator involvement and stated commitment from key actors like the EU or neighboring countries to facilitate talks
• ›Technical parameters and inspection protocols that both sides would need to accept, drawing from JCPOA precedent

What moved the line

• Jun 2US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?↓5pp70→65¢ · Polymarket
• May 31US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?↓4pp76→72¢ · Polymarket
• May 30US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?↓3pp79→76¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in iran

• Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cuplast 97% · 1d
• Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?: 80+last 9% · 3d
• Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?: 0-10last 96% · 3d
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Maylast 3% · 3d
• Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by May 31?: ↓ 1.5Mlast 40% · 4d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds