US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
This contract is priced at 10¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 9¢ bid, 10¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
2
Family volume
$8.5M
Best sibling
December 31 28¢
Ticker
0xbcacd5a0…1d55
Price history
10¢ current
−2¢Orderbook snapshot
9 / 10¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
0xbcacd5a0…1d55
Event family
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$8.5M
Outcomes
2
Highest price
December 31 28¢
Current share
97%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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