US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
This contract is priced at 21¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 20¢ bid, 21¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
3
Family volume
$16.4M
Best sibling
June 30 38¢
Ticker
0x0e4a0c93…a089
Price history
21¢ current
Orderbook snapshot
20 / 21¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
0x0e4a0c93…a089
Event family
US x Iran permanent peace deal by.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$16.4M
Outcomes
3
Highest price
June 30 38¢
Current share
64%
May 31
polymarket · 0x0e4a0c937b8934c2475613b6322b3f8edc8dedc24762e01e42b0e6f87424a089
June 30
polymarket · 0x6114a8a3f9ac214f48a7e20d169f1c7a5c84082cb6f7058ed9fe1137b11fd0e7
May 15
polymarket · 0x1db02ba50e2312a62b4104de691cc7a76065d8d0da40decf93eb1b914a3217b7
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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