Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?

John Braun is priced at an extremely high 92¢ with a massive asymmetry in implied yields—the No side offers 3853.7% versus just 29.1% for Yes—suggesting the market heavily discounts any realistic path to his elimination in the primary. The 109-day timeframe to the August 4, 2026 Washington primary provides reasonable runway for information arrival, yet the thin 24-hour volume of $2.96 against $15.2M open interest indicates low liquidity that could amplify price swings if sentiment shifts. The modest 1¢ spread and stable 91¢-to-92¢ price movement over seven days suggest this consensus view is entrenched, though the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 12 signals meaningful tail risk concentrated near resolution.

Resolution rules

The non-partisan primary election for the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. The two candidates who receive the most votes in this primary election will qualify for the General Election. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 WA-03 congressional district primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for the WA-03 congressional district seat, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Washington, specifically the Washington Office of the Secretary of State.

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