Will the Republicans win the West Virginia Senate race in 2026
Will the Republicans win the West Virginia Senate race in 2026 is priced at 96¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 94¢ bid, 97¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
96¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm West Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Outcome
Will the Republicans win the West Virginia Senate race in 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$7K
Identifier
0x45603784...9aab
Jun 18, 2026, 2:58 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
94¢
Ask
97¢
Spread
3¢
Reported volume
$7K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
—
Family volume
$7K
Orderbook snapshot
94 / 97¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm West Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
—
Identifier
0x45603784…9aab
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$7K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will the Republicans win the West Virginia Senate race in 2026 96¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.477
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.