West Virginia Senate Election Winner
Leader sits at 96% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Republican
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
Democrat
Spread
92pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
138 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
West Virginia Senate Election Winner
Analysis
This 94% probability indicates that prediction markets expect a Republican to win West Virginia's 2026 Senate seat with high confidence. West Virginia has shifted significantly toward Republican voters in recent cycles, with the state voting Republican in the last three presidential elections by large margins. The probability reflects both the structural Republican advantage in the state and current political conditions. The main factor that could shift this probability downward would be stronger-than-expected Democratic turnout or candidate performance. The Democratic primary outcome—scheduled before the general election—will help clarify the Democratic nominee's viability and could cause modest movements in the general election odds. The general election will ultimately resolve this in November 2026.
- ›West Virginia voted Republican by 38 percentage points in 2020 and 42 points in 2024, establishing a strong baseline Republican lean
- ›The state has elected Republicans statewide in recent cycles, indicating structural advantages for GOP candidates in general elections
- ›Democratic primary dynamics and nominee strength will influence whether this probability remains stable or shifts before November 2026
- ›General election turnout and campaigning intensity between May and November 2026 could move the probability if either candidate demonstrates unexpected strength
- ›The result will be determined in the November 2026 general election when all voters cast ballots
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (96% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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