West Bengal Legislative Assembly Election Winner: BJP
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 28% across 15 contracts. Kalshi at 42%, Polymarket at 26% — a 16pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
42%
2 contracts
Polymarket
26%
13 contracts
Cross-venue gap
16pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$197K
15 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
917 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 42¢ · Polymarket 26¢ · 16pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (26¢, 13 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (42¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
8 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Presidential Election Winner 2028” vs “Galway-West By-Election Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Presidential Election Winner 2028: Gavin Newsom
0x4567b2…7e57
Presidential Election Winner 2028: Donald Trump
0xce9a5f…f34a
Presidential Election Winner 2028: Marco Rubio
0x2053d8…5277
Presidential Election Winner 2028: Tucker Carlson
0xd94b47…a797
Cluster 2
Galway-West By-Election Winner
Galway-West By-Election Winner?: Sheila Garrity
0xa46d2b…8ecc
Galway-West By-Election Winner?: Noel Thomas
0x338e69…2c92
Galway-West By-Election Winner?: Mike Cubbard
0x488431…2797
Galway-West By-Election Winner?: Mark Lohan
0x8b2b90…236b
Cluster 3
Western Conference Finals Winner
Cluster 4
Peru Presidential Election Winner: Roberto Sánchez Palomino
Peru Presidential Election Winner: Roberto Sánchez Palomino
0x2cd24d…3951
Cluster 5
Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner
Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?: Abelardo de la Espriella
0xb611b3…e325
Cluster 6
Maine Senate Election Winner: Republican
Maine Senate Election Winner: Republican
0x2c00cb…8c48
Cluster 7
California Governor Election Winner: Katie Porter
California Governor Election Winner: Katie Porter
0x11375f…f457
Cluster 8
West Virginia Senate Election Winner: Republican
West Virginia Senate Election Winner: Republican
0x456037…9aab
What moved the line
- Apr 28Tucker Carlson↑23pp3→26¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29Tucker Carlson↓23pp26→3¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28Sheila Garrity↑14pp7→21¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28Mark Lohan↑13pp9→22¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28Abelardo de la Espriella↑12pp6→18¢ · Polymarket
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
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2026 Midterms: Democrats 85% to Flip House, Senate a Toss-Up
Prediction markets price Democrats as 85% favorites to flip the House while the Senate races at a coin-flip, with a full Democratic sweep now the single most likely outcome at 50%.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 12 min ago.