West Bengal Legislative Assembly Election Winner: BJP
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 34% across 5 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
34%
5 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$26K
5 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
873 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 29% of their title tokens — “Presidential Election Winner 2028” vs “Maine Senate Election Winner: Republican”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Cluster 2
Maine Senate Election Winner: Republican
Maine Senate Election Winner: Republican
0x2c00cb…8c48
Cluster 3
West Virginia Senate Election Winner: Republican
West Virginia Senate Election Winner: Republican
0x456037…9aab
Analysis
This represents the estimated likelihood that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will win the most seats in West Bengal's next state legislative assembly election. At 33%, the market implies the BJP faces significant headwinds in the state despite its national dominance. The probability reflects West Bengal's strong regional parties, particularly the Trinamool Congress under Mamata Banerjee, which has governed the state since 2011 and maintains deep local support networks. The outcome hinges on voter consolidation patterns, whether opposition parties can maintain unity against the BJP, and turnout levels in key districts. The main catalyst for resolving this uncertainty will be the election itself, typically scheduled every five years from 2021, making the next election date a critical data point. Regional political realignment in Bengal could significantly shift these odds either direction.
- ›Trinamool Congress won 213 of 294 seats in the 2021 West Bengal assembly election, holding substantial incumbent advantages and organizational infrastructure
- ›BJP secured only 77 seats in 2021 despite gains from 2016, indicating a ceiling on its performance in the state despite national strength
- ›Opposition party unity or fragmentation during campaign season directly affects vote distribution and seat allocation under Bengal's electoral system
- ›Voter turnout and demographic participation in urban versus rural areas influences outcomes given different party strongholds
- ›State-specific issues including economic conditions, governance performance, and local administrative decisions typically outweigh national trends in assembly elections
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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