West Bengal Legislative Assembly Election Winner: AITC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 34% across 5 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
34%
5 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$26K
5 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
873 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 29% of their title tokens — “Presidential Election Winner 2028” vs “Maine Senate Election Winner: Republican”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Cluster 2
Maine Senate Election Winner: Republican
Maine Senate Election Winner: Republican
0x2c00cb…8c48
Cluster 3
West Virginia Senate Election Winner: Republican
West Virginia Senate Election Winner: Republican
0x456037…9aab
Recently closed in election 2026
- KY-04 House Election Winnerlast 90% · 1d
- AZ-05 House Election Winnerlast 81% · 1d
- Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 1d
- MN-08 House Election Winnerlast 73% · 1d
- Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winnerlast 5% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.