What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 9¢ spread despite modest $4,066.83 open interest, making the 8¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 9¢ spread despite modest $4,066.83 open interest, making the 8¢ price potentially unreliable. The asymmetric implied yields—1,616.7% for Yes versus 12.2% for No—reflect the low probability baked into pricing, though the risk-adjusted yield of 808% suggests significant uncertainty about whether Jony Ive and OpenAI will actually announce glasses hardware by January 2027. The market has declined 1¢ over seven days and carries a moderate cliff risk index of 12, indicating potential for sharp repricing if news emerges about the collaboration.
Also on polymarket at 22¢(Δ -6¢)
Resolution rules
If OpenAI announces its first hardware device as part of their collaboration/acquisition of Jony Ive's io that is Glasses before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOAIHARDWARE-27-GLASSES yes 100