What is the current probability for "What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 14¢ (14% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 255 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1448.5% and 14.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and just $3,865 open interest, making the 14¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.

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14¢

Bid/Ask 9/13¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $3,865.44·Closes Jan 1, 2027·255d remaining

KXOAIHARDWARE-27-PHONE

7-day price11 snapshots · 2 regime

9¢9¢ current

Apr 86¢Apr 19

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and just $3,865 open interest, making the 14¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The 1,616.9% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic illiquidity mirage—the 6¢ spread represents 43% of the current price, indicating wide uncertainty and thin order books. With 260 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 12, the market has time for information to develop, but traders should demand significant liquidity improvements before committing capital.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 15¢(Δ -1¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.62IY 817.0%Close-time delta 39h

Resolution rules

If OpenAI announces its first hardware device as part of their collaboration/acquisition of Jony Ive's io that is Phone before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1448.5%

IY (No) 14.2%

Adj IY 724%

CRI 10

Overround 0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1448.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	14.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	724%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	10	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.432

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:12:15 PM

Observability mediumEvent type unknown

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXOAIHARDWARE-27-PHONE yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →