What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market is severely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and only $660 open interest, making the 9¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 5¢ spread.
Analysis
This market is severely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and only $660 open interest, making the 9¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 5¢ spread. The extreme 3374.7% implied yield on the Yes side suggests either significant mispricing or that traders view a tablet announcement as highly unlikely, though the specific resolution criterion (tablet device by Jan 1, 2027) leaves substantial ambiguity about what hardware OpenAI might actually unveil. With 260 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 24, this remains a speculative position best suited for contrarian bettors comfortable with illiquid markets.
Also on polymarket at 7¢(Δ -3¢)
Resolution rules
If OpenAI announces its first hardware device as part of their collaboration/acquisition of Jony Ive's io that is Tablet before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOAIHARDWARE-27-TABLET yes 100