SimpleFunctions

↓ $4,200 · What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026

↓ $4,200 is priced at 5¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 3¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 16 inside What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026?.

Price history

5¢ current

6¢
0¢10¢
May 18, 2026May 24, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during May 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session as listed on Pyth will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Gold Futures (GC)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

Outcome

↓ $4,200

Rank

#8 of 16

Leader

↑ $4,600 74¢

Range

0¢-74¢

Family volume

$595K

Identifier

0x3a34bdcd...79de

May 24, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 15m ago

Implied probability

5¢
Latest venue quote
May 24, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 15m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

24h volume

$2K

Family rank

#8 of 16

16 outcomes · What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026?

Closes

Jun 1, 2026

Family volume

$595K

Orderbook snapshot

3 / 6¢

Polymarket
3¢ spread
BidSize
100¢150
100¢1.0K
3¢47
3¢31
3¢45
2¢400
2¢580
2¢600
AskSize
6¢21
6¢21
7¢525
7¢414
7¢100
8¢100
10¢50
12¢742

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during May 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session as listed on Pyth will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Gold Futures (GC)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 1, 2026

Identifier

0x3a34bdcd…79de

SF Signal
SF Index
98564.53
Regime
taker

Event family

What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$595K

Outcomes

16

Highest price

↑ $4,600 74¢

Current share

5%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

↑ $4,600

polymarket · 0xe3118c1b661f4b1694c0b75c1799d0ccf7d39d1c96e4df685abd725ede6b12a1

74¢
$16K$8K0.1

↑ $4,650

polymarket · 0x5c71b04f4feb89ced58e02dd4137deaed75253c0c119047c77aa21d65a41440a

53¢
$15K$2K0.1

↑ $4,700

polymarket · 0xb29233fc83030c1f9c223bc836d0066749bd145a4c9569e7348df74688450996

24¢
$6K$4380.7

↑ $4,750

polymarket · 0xa809f3f82fa120734182853845ea5094e34a5af91ff948cacb2d11177a2e48fa

21¢
$5K$744

↓ $4,400

polymarket · 0xc007be1ec183081a5148e2cb7fbb3ffa7e949606e0a5651751701d7bf15ca86f

20¢
$88K$2K0.3

↑ $4,800

polymarket · 0x0a0a25b8d835aa470b1f936be1a65b0c1f7ef4bec07071423b3f4f23993339c6

11¢
$86K$2K0.5

↓ $4,300

polymarket · 0x21109896dd6e5dd409b601a0a3b898c1de5c9937879099c86d642d00490acef0

11¢
$33K$1K

↑ $4,850

polymarket · 0xe540f8938504d2a03c23d21949b2c86763861dc4fed40431abd1dd7fba92354e

5¢
$66K$1K

↓ $4,200

polymarket · 0x3a34bdcdb5332b8edb76fca831e2a48f9a43374f67cfa1dd0f6ee584a62479de

5¢
$29K$2K

↑ $4,900

polymarket · 0xa9e762800da14030767069cd499cb03e6f117cf36a1477c034e0085a6d1aef50

3¢
$71K$4K

↓ $4,100

polymarket · 0xa51be928689f9301d259929815983315610448e6bd0bc7ef3c46989f1ccaf28e

3¢
$58K$6760.7

↑ $5,000

polymarket · 0xb0b6ce555a817b462f5d76b2b57408bc853a18406f919528fbdb20d1e709403e

1¢
$41K$280

↑ $5,100

polymarket · 0x170726b00f764694d3b0478bab4c89722adae31cd17ca19bf30cd940fc5904e8

1¢
$25K$333

↑ $5,200

polymarket · 0x69458b6d778fe2ed8190ce4752754270a8ce6445a45c2c0fcb96d280cddb1d50

1¢
$23K$4K

↑ $5,300

polymarket · 0xffa8c8f6c22e70389676da3006df43be9dc1efa80fd452008bf457c6d2526e02

1¢
$6K$791

↑ $5,400

polymarket · 0xd6980bdb520c0fed40d140625d61d347960b176ddf7f122f1daaabae5afd5469

0¢
$27K$3K

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

98564.5%

IY (No)

273.0%

Adj IY

98565%

CRI

19

RV

1152%

VR

0.37

Regime

taker

Score

0.625

Full indicator table

98564.5%
273.0%
Adj IY
98565%
19
RV
1152%
VR
0.37
IAR
0.4/h
29.000
Overround
1.3%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.