What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026?
Leader sits at 84% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 54%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↑ $4,600
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
54¢
↑ $4,650
Spread
30pp
contested
24h volume
$24K
liquid
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
7 days
Venue
Polymarket
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026
What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $4,600
0xe3118c…12a1
What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $4,900
0xa9e762…ef50
What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $4,400
0xc007be…a86f
What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $4,650
0x5c71b0…440a
What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $4,800
0x0a0a25…39c6
What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $4,200
0x3a34bd…79de
What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $4,850
0xe540f8…354e
What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $4,300
0x211098…cef0
What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $4,750
0xa809f3…48fa
What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $4,100
0xa51be9…f28e
What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $4,700
0xb29233…0996
Analysis
This contract reflects a 33% probability that gold prices will fall below $4,400 by the end of May 2026. The relatively balanced spread across outcomes—with the bearish scenario leading but competing against bullish contracts—suggests traders see roughly equal weight on downside and upside moves. Gold price movements are typically driven by shifts in real interest rates, US dollar strength, and geopolitical risk appetite. The main catalyst for resolution will be actual gold spot prices as they trade through May, influenced by Federal Reserve policy signals, inflation data releases, and broader macroeconomic indicators. Currently, the bullish scenario (above $4,800) and bearish scenario (below $4,400) together account for the plurality of positions, indicating meaningful uncertainty about the direction of gold's near-term trend.
- ›Gold closed May 18, 2026 near the range midpoint, leaving significant room to move in either direction before month-end
- ›Current contract distribution shows the ↓$4,400 outcome at 33% (leading) versus ↑$4,800 at 22%, indicating modest but not overwhelming bearish lean
- ›24-hour trading volume concentrated in the top two contracts ($4,497 and $4,335) suggests active repricing based on new information
- ›Federal Reserve communications and US inflation data scheduled for late May could trigger large directional moves in gold
- ›Real interest rate expectations and USD index performance are primary fundamental drivers; a strengthening dollar typically pressures gold prices downward
What moved the line
- May 24↑ $4,600↑18pp56→74¢ · Polymarket
- May 21↓ $4,400↓16pp47→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 22↑ $4,600↓14pp66→52¢ · Polymarket
- May 20↑ $4,600↑13pp56→69¢ · Polymarket
- May 20↑ $4,650↑13pp42→55¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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