↑ $4,650 · What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026
↑ $4,650 is priced at 54¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 54¢ bid, 60¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 16 inside What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026?.
Price history
54¢ current
+15¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and the end of May 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session as listed on Pyth will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) "High" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Gold Futures (GC)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Outcome
↑ $4,650
Rank
#2 of 16
Leader
↑ $4,600 83¢
Range
0¢-83¢
Family volume
$599K
Identifier
0x5c71b04f...440a
May 25, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC · 23m ago
Implied probability
Bid
54¢
Ask
60¢
Spread
6¢
24h volume
$2K
Family rank
#2 of 16
16 outcomes · What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026?
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
Family volume
$599K
Orderbook snapshot
54 / 60¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and the end of May 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session as listed on Pyth will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) "High" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Gold Futures (GC)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
Identifier
0x5c71b04f…440a
Event family
What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$599K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
↑ $4,600 83¢
Current share
3%
↑ $4,600
polymarket · 0xe3118c1b661f4b1694c0b75c1799d0ccf7d39d1c96e4df685abd725ede6b12a1
↑ $4,650
polymarket · 0x5c71b04f4feb89ced58e02dd4137deaed75253c0c119047c77aa21d65a41440a
↑ $4,700
polymarket · 0xb29233fc83030c1f9c223bc836d0066749bd145a4c9569e7348df74688450996
↑ $4,750
polymarket · 0xa809f3f82fa120734182853845ea5094e34a5af91ff948cacb2d11177a2e48fa
↑ $4,800
polymarket · 0x0a0a25b8d835aa470b1f936be1a65b0c1f7ef4bec07071423b3f4f23993339c6
↓ $4,400
polymarket · 0xc007be1ec183081a5148e2cb7fbb3ffa7e949606e0a5651751701d7bf15ca86f
↓ $4,300
polymarket · 0x21109896dd6e5dd409b601a0a3b898c1de5c9937879099c86d642d00490acef0
↓ $4,200
polymarket · 0x3a34bdcdb5332b8edb76fca831e2a48f9a43374f67cfa1dd0f6ee584a62479de
↑ $4,850
polymarket · 0xe540f8938504d2a03c23d21949b2c86763861dc4fed40431abd1dd7fba92354e
↑ $4,900
polymarket · 0xa9e762800da14030767069cd499cb03e6f117cf36a1477c034e0085a6d1aef50
↓ $4,100
polymarket · 0xa51be928689f9301d259929815983315610448e6bd0bc7ef3c46989f1ccaf28e
↑ $5,000
polymarket · 0xb0b6ce555a817b462f5d76b2b57408bc853a18406f919528fbdb20d1e709403e
↑ $5,100
polymarket · 0x170726b00f764694d3b0478bab4c89722adae31cd17ca19bf30cd940fc5904e8
↑ $5,300
polymarket · 0xffa8c8f6c22e70389676da3006df43be9dc1efa80fd452008bf457c6d2526e02
↑ $5,400
polymarket · 0xd6980bdb520c0fed40d140625d61d347960b176ddf7f122f1daaabae5afd5469
↑ $5,200
polymarket · 0x69458b6d778fe2ed8190ce4752754270a8ce6445a45c2c0fcb96d280cddb1d50
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.625
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.