Will Opendoor reach $7.75 in April?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Opendoor reach $7.75 in April?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Polymarket, closing May 1, 2026. This illiquid market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 8641% and a massive 51¢ spread, yet the 26¢ price implies only a 26% probability that OPEN reaches $7.75 in April despite a 2582% annualized yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This illiquid market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 8641% and a massive 51¢ spread, yet the 26¢ price implies only a 26% probability that OPEN reaches $7.75 in April despite a 2582% annualized yield on the Yes side. The 7-day price movement from 22¢ to 49¢ and zero 24-hour volume suggest the market may be mispriced or abandoned, with the high cliff risk index (1.0) indicating binary resolution dynamics dominate pricing rather than fundamental valuation. With just 15 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of 1.8 events per hour, this appears to be a speculative tail-risk bet rather than a liquid prediction market.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026 (ET), any 1-minute candle for Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during regular trading hours (ET) will be considered. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) "High" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OPEN/, with the chart settings on "1m" for candle intervals. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
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sf trade 0xfa3c38b14d4d9fce52bbd308bb6f69b5f0dfd2fddd5a183c021843337ea9a536 yes 100