What will Opendoor (OPEN) hit in April 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 13 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
31%
13 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$69K
13 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
197 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 13 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “What price” vs “What will happen before GTA VI”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What price
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 90,000
0xbb379a…f50e
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000
0x024b68…6fee
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 55,000
0x752fa6…8a8c
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000
0xce3c54…2c56
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000
0x1e5564…baa2
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500
0xcf25cc…9780
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 130,000
0x885a6a…a859
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 35,000
0x2745c3…a2a2
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 5,500
0xb75b8c…aac8
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 160,000
0x472c90…54b0
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 110,000
0x63eaf4…7b01
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,000
0xacb333…e369
Cluster 2
What will happen before GTA VI
What will happen before GTA VI?: Bitcoin hits $1m
0xbb57cc…89d2
Analysis
This market measures the probability that Opendoor (OPEN) stock closes below $4 in April 2026, currently assessed at 31%. The prediction reflects investor expectations about the real estate technology company's valuation over the next ten months. The probability is influenced by broader housing market conditions, Opendoor's quarterly earnings performance, and macroeconomic factors affecting fintech and proptech valuations. Key drivers include mortgage rate trends, housing inventory levels, and the company's ability to maintain market share in its competitive segment. Resolution will depend on OPEN's actual closing price during April 2026, making upcoming earnings reports and housing data releases between now and then significant catalysts that could shift market expectations.
- ›Opendoor's quarterly earnings reports and guidance through Q1 2026 will provide actual performance data against analyst expectations
- ›Mortgage rate movements and housing demand data releases could significantly impact the real estate technology sector valuation
- ›OPEN's current stock price relative to $4 and its historical volatility establish a baseline for assessing downside probability
- ›Competitive positioning within the proptech sector and market share retention will influence investor confidence in the company's trajectory
- ›Macroeconomic conditions including inflation data and Federal Reserve policy signals through early 2026 will affect growth stock valuations broadly
What moved the line
- Jun 15↓ 1,500↓11pp81→70¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 10↓ 55,000↑6pp71→77¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 15↑ 90,000↑5pp28→33¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 16↑ 90,000↓5pp33→28¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 11↓ 55,000↓5pp77→72¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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