Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?

HOOD would need to rally roughly 238% from current levels to hit $105 during April 2026, yet the market prices this at only 27% probability with an extraordinary 6688% implied yield on the YES side—suggesting severe illiquidity and potential mispricing given the $0 24-hour volume and 39¢ spread. The realized volatility of 1281% indicates HOOD has demonstrated extreme price swings historically, which somewhat supports tail-risk pricing, but the zero volume combined with the massive open interest of $672,651 and cliff risk index of 3 suggests this market may be illiquid and prone to slippage. With 15 days to expiry and only 0.9 information arrivals per hour, any significant news catalyst could dramatically reprrice this binary outcome.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026, any 1-minute candle for Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) "High" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.HOOD%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.HOOD%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

Indicators

Regime

Trade