Will US existing home sales for April 2026 be above 3.70M?
Prediction markets currently give a 93% probability that Will US existing home sales for April 2026 be above 3.70M?. This contract trades at 93¢ on Kalshi, closing May 11, 2026. This illiquid micro-contract shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the No side offering an implausible 8440.8% annualized return versus 262.9% for Yes, suggesting severe mispricing or minimal market depth at the $86 open interest level.
Analysis
This illiquid micro-contract shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the No side offering an implausible 8440.8% annualized return versus 262.9% for Yes, suggesting severe mispricing or minimal market depth at the $86 open interest level. The 89¢ price has drifted upward 5¢ over seven days despite zero 24-hour volume, indicating stale pricing rather than active trading conviction. With only 25 days to expiry and a wide 8¢ spread, this market lacks sufficient liquidity to serve as a reliable signal for April 2026 existing home sales.
Resolution rules
If US existing home sales for April 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, millions of homes) is above 3.70M, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEHSALES-26MAY11-T3.70 yes 100