SimpleFunctions

The Weekend · Which artists will release new albums in 2026

The Weekend is priced at 48¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 94¢ ask, 93¢ spread. This outcome ranks #9 of 16 inside Which artists will release new albums in 2026?.

Price history

48¢ current

+4¢
50¢
Apr 26, 2026May 27, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new album between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including recordings of live events) by the resolution date. Album releases including non-original tracks such as live-versions, re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums, or similar non original or altered versions of previously released songs will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release. The primary resolution sources will be official streaming and download platforms. In cases of ambiguity over how a song/album is labeled, the listed resolution sources will be consulted in the following order of precedence: Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, and Deezer.

Outcome

The Weekend

Rank

#9 of 16

Leader

Olivia Rodrigo 99¢

Range

16¢-99¢

Family volume

$78K

Identifier

0xf9bc7aa2...7712

May 27, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 26m ago

Implied probability

48¢
Latest venue quote
May 27, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 26m ago

Bid

Ask

94¢

Spread

93¢

Reported volume

$0

Family rank

#9 of 16

16 outcomes · Which artists will release new albums in 2026?

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Family volume

$78K

Orderbook snapshot

1 / 94¢

Polymarket
93¢ spread
BidSize
100¢100
AskSize
94¢42
96¢25
97¢60

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new album between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including recordings of live events) by the resolution date. Album releases including non-original tracks such as live-versions, re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums, or similar non original or altered versions of previously released songs will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release. The primary resolution sources will be official streaming and download platforms. In cases of ambiguity over how a song/album is labeled, the listed resolution sources will be consulted in the following order of precedence: Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, and Deezer.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Identifier

0xf9bc7aa2…7712

SF Signal
SF Index
181.44
Regime
neutral

Cross-venue match

Similar contract on kalshi at 28¢, +20¢ versus this page.

View counterpart

Event family

Which artists will release new albums in 2026.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$78K

Outcomes

16

Highest price

Olivia Rodrigo 99¢

Current share

0%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Olivia Rodrigo

polymarket · 0x4618b3d681487cd0eb31bb82eb2862bcb572eea220af3f4aa607b14e54ad31fb

99¢
$4K$0

Beyoncé

polymarket · 0x2d857875438043c1e79a750650b188d313f3b7bd42a27de2b47928260c0ef506

69¢
$131$00.5

Kendrick Lamar

polymarket · 0xbf97a4643151b6eaab647a112be686a52133a5f6af3e1bbe2190ef94e38651ed

63¢
$31K$19

Eminem

polymarket · 0xc7f679982ec869e043a54456aa4c5003adf265ab96d8c96e09875c9284ed681c

59¢
$3K$00.1

Billie Eilish

polymarket · 0x00b5fdb186f9b48f34a77c9e04207c39221cdd106c1611d7ae362b8b85b200fb

58¢
$39$0

Lana Del Rey

polymarket · 0x6947d1e419f570b92a6aa509cbb2eaf137fa9a0a1618b669b87a0bb354af3bd4

53¢
$7K$00.2

Bad Bunny

polymarket · 0x2cfc4c6d577109270352159a5ea834e706b4434e27e0fee45cc40bbdf238c78f

50¢
$6K$0

Justin Bieber

polymarket · 0x8d16da2d9c02f19254048af42560846ceb0f0bf5da071a0a312df1c58e2b8dd9

49¢
$3K$00.6

Travis Scott

polymarket · 0xca634275e74cabcc22dfc4b3528f9d195869aa4827c63005fa817f459dd19ee5

48¢
$320$0

The Weekend

polymarket · 0xf9bc7aa2347aed345f2c037520c3d5ff9b833cd605dbacb22e40cb8c4f397712

48¢
$0$0

Sabrina Carpenter

polymarket · 0x8cec1aad1e97c1905dc42d46781c6b9fefeb8438ea5215e70aa55948cc3d4c96

43¢
$208$01.9

Playboi Carti

polymarket · 0x9d4b05bf105b6ac1b67427e5b336680507aee28753ac0930333ebb3215eb1ce0

36¢
$7K$00.2

Taylor Swift

polymarket · 0x986578c2655979e0a8414ce04793c6e8226c7a368c25d1379cd300259cba1c09

30¢
$7$0

Jay Z

polymarket · 0x8cb3fdbb7faef87d3ce2b0663fe150524029d8ea2fbe07e87f30804208072558

28¢
$3$01.4

Rihanna

polymarket · 0x6a07dfa017ff96c5502d8c2e64cb00b0bdeb8a8426eccae80f2a64e06366ffdd

22¢
$12K$17

Frank Ocean

polymarket · 0xc5b751a3ead913be1a0fa6f1f587a52dd1b7fb3a8f15288e43c430d54b6e8d52

16¢
$5K$0

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

181.4%

IY (No)

154.6%

Adj IY

181%

CRI

1

RV

2008%

VR

15.77

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

181.4%
154.6%
Adj IY
181%
1
RV
2008%
VR
15.77
IAR
3.4/h
Overround
5.7%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.