Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
This contract is priced at 82¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 81¢ bid, 82¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
6
Family volume
$307K
Best sibling
Tarcisio de Frietas 3¢
Ticker
0x7b22caee…47a2
Market snapshot
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?. The displayed quote is 82¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $5. In the Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? family, this outcome ranks #2 of 6 by current quote across 6 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 5:53 AM UTC.
Outcome
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Family rank
#2 of 6
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
82¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Oct 4, 2026
24h volume
$5
Family context
6 outcomes · Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
Quote range
3¢-87¢
Family leader
Flavio Bolsonaro 87¢
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 5:53 AM UTC · 5m ago
Venue identifier: 0x7b22caeed454d3c7dbd07b83d8255c74e1482c4f958b4ba4dd0c27b864cd47a2. Family volume: $307K.
Price history
82¢ current
−1¢Orderbook snapshot
81 / 82¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Oct 4, 2026
Identifier
0x7b22caee…47a2
Event family
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$307K
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Flavio Bolsonaro 87¢
Current share
42%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
polymarket · 0x7b22caeed454d3c7dbd07b83d8255c74e1482c4f958b4ba4dd0c27b864cd47a2
Tarcisio de Frietas
polymarket · 0xd7391798f941b8fe16773f96397ef3f91a2fc36939bdd50a78776dbf93ddd280
Fernando Haddad
polymarket · 0x42c969b601530ece32eef646b8cbd91ac66e68bdad1fd2ba426f69a2ee2c7548
Michelle Bolsonaro
polymarket · 0x003e6ffdf25f45a8d5679831551658e1b54094187f552fc6ef4b26bca404c971
Flavio Bolsonaro
polymarket · 0x023a8c2fd2a78c29c9748a44205e2cbe624d86c11ee41b81d4067ddbbf2a135f
Jair Bolsonaro
polymarket · 0x385cddb4dd6eeb4e09394901122f5ca461c5d07fe83fe3f4349ea5a877c3e6cc
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
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