Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff
Leader sits at 88% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 82%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Flavio Bolsonaro
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
82¢
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$105
thin orderbook
Closes
Oct 4, 2026
148 days
Venue
Polymarket
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?: Flavio Bolsonaro
0x023a8c…135f
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
0x7b22ca…47a2
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?: Jair Bolsonaro
0x385cdd…e6cc
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?: Michelle Bolsonaro
0x003e6f…c971
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?: Fernando Haddad
0x42c969…7548
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?: Tarcisio de Frietas
0xd73917…d280
Analysis
The 87% probability indicates that markets expect Flávio Bolsonaro to advance to Brazil's presidential runoff, based on aggregated contracts across Polymarket and Kalshi. The probability reflects confidence that Bolsonaro will finish among the top two candidates in the first round, though separate contracts show lower odds (44%) that he wins outright. The high probability is primarily driven by Bolsonaro's current polling position and name recognition as a leading right-wing candidate, while uncertainty centers on whether challengers like Lula can consolidate opposition votes. The main catalyst for resolution is Brazil's first-round election results, scheduled for their next national election cycle. Between now and that vote, changes in polling aggregates, campaign developments, and voter mobilization efforts—particularly among opposition parties—could shift market expectations either upward or downward.
- ›Flávio Bolsonaro's position in current public polling relative to second-place finishers determines runoff advancement likelihood
- ›First-round vote threshold: candidates need sufficient support to place top-two; a fragmented field increases advancement odds, consolidation reduces them
- ›Lula's ballot eligibility and campaign viability affect whether opposition votes concentrate behind a single competitor
- ›Turnout levels and regional voting patterns in Brazil's first round directly determine whether leading candidates clear the runoff threshold
- ›Campaign incidents, legal challenges, or coalition shifts in the 6-12 months before election day could alter candidate viability assessments
What moved the line
- May 6Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva↑4pp74→78¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva↑3pp78→81¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Jair Bolsonaro↑3pp2→5¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.