Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
This contract is priced at 0¢ midpoint on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 0¢ ask, 0¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
15
Family volume
$5.2M
Best sibling
xAI 2¢
Ticker
0xce421307…12ef
Price history
0¢ current
−50¢Orderbook snapshot
0 / 0¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
0xce421307…12ef
Event family
Which company has best AI model end of June.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$5.2M
Outcomes
15
Highest price
Anthropic 69¢
Current share
2%
Microsoft
polymarket · 0xce4213079b24e02ee44c724e7042ab66fc77f01fce82bfb1b20c2524250d12ef
xAI
polymarket · 0x8aed35d66a2094c1221c040489e5507065f7c38381d8874e436a0ce9ff029315
Anthropic
polymarket · 0xa4d72632ac0ddadcac5247ffc586a193f1bc3bc839cf9ce993c2471e0d599cca
DeepSeek
polymarket · 0x241ac01c5cdac5f72014a8039b6678faa26f2f93577e6aaf629600f0b5770a1d
polymarket · 0x0bd1b836a2494f80aaee62927cf01e5f6fceb19114e96fc517c6440aea4576e4
Mistral
polymarket · 0xb5bc0c62cc121183fab3645197b346b474396f52cd67622ca1010a541b955411
Alibaba
polymarket · 0x89102f28df8a119d84259cfdd0f2f7f9a758cfdf749554e153c6bf154afbe717
Moonshot
polymarket · 0x32b8fa5904645a7d096a559783121eb6c0db71487c47db0bcab99a92d5abb0dd
Meituan
polymarket · 0x0a650c635145e570bfcebccf7cd63f1074d49a13d2e7a384717afeea90cf5d74
OpenAI
polymarket · 0x734c6c32a62f8a27035a222e45fc388d59eeffe89bb31ab26054bc29bcc3eee7
Z.ai
polymarket · 0x9812b1740a7dc0ec0318f66577bd40305576ad43cfcd732399dc02a328035ef2
ByteDance
polymarket · 0x0dc7faa4b5ee79d083532267b6bebe2e701c1801506e299193a667d710490580
Amazon
polymarket · 0x04f08e68b89ee5f76aeec75b403bf9687ca6d2c4040e737516b9debb7cbb486b
Baidu
polymarket · 0x94d08baa1c18020cd133bb5eb7486001ad4336bb6a488f8ad34b679af1b58a88
Meta
polymarket · 0xf243f49f25aa69cc55bfa09789c1f85645061625a84c6de14e8f9b2915c12893
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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