Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

OpenAI's probability of holding the best model by June 2026 has compressed to just 12¢, implying the market sees significant competition from rivals like Anthropic and DeepSeek—a stark shift from OpenAI's historical dominance on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard. The extreme 3,696% implied yield on "Yes" positions reflects the asymmetric risk/reward, though the 859% realized volatility and high cliff risk index (7) suggest this market is pricing in binary competitive outcomes rather than incremental model improvements. With only $3,155 in 24-hour volume against $38.9k open interest, liquidity is thin relative to positions held, creating potential execution challenges for large trades in the final 72 days before resolution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

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