Will Moonshot have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
This contract is priced at 22¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 43¢ ask, 43¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
15
Family volume
$1K
Best sibling
Google 37¢
Ticker
0x1d5eb2d9…ace7
Market snapshot
Moonshot in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will Moonshot have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?. The displayed quote is 22¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports reported volume of $54. In the Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On) family, this outcome ranks #8 of 15 by current quote across 15 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC.
Outcome
Moonshot
Family rank
#8 of 15
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
22¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Jun 30, 2026
Reported volume
$54
Family context
15 outcomes · Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)
Quote range
8¢-41¢
Family leader
Anthropic 41¢
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 6m ago
Venue identifier: 0x1d5eb2d93db80bc7cd054beb300d378f53fd6d3d100f01fd4d0abe036546ace7. Family volume: $1K.
Price history
22¢ current
−10¢Orderbook snapshot
0 / 43¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
0x1d5eb2d9…ace7
Event family
Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On).
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
15
Highest price
Anthropic 41¢
Current share
4%
Moonshot
polymarket · 0x1d5eb2d93db80bc7cd054beb300d378f53fd6d3d100f01fd4d0abe036546ace7
polymarket · 0x572d474a2eaef4e5f26c31a3129e7d089883cddfd120d9ab5546d99953cc97b7
Anthropic
polymarket · 0xd3b572f14a93e1d3eb1fb9424c684bbf602539fb02111c971c2936aaf69812ea
DeepSeek
polymarket · 0x8fe8a74d743c414ba53e55f2ca676a8038496995b81636d92206b6af89ee0ffc
OpenAI
polymarket · 0x3e2450588be1051f60a6ef4197370578c89e48940a2b40829955f8da6f4a296f
xAI
polymarket · 0xb850b1595879cf743fa91985fcd74ada9807875da51fa0a276162a7d31d9b101
Baidu
polymarket · 0x5d7ebc10d54821129f7c23125d25174e49e2a56881606d2d7fa049a2128b4582
Amazon
polymarket · 0xe60a810bc3eda30c79d245fe95dbcb011f657701ea7770e5ef3ab456821aac15
Mistral
polymarket · 0xfdba683c363fe1706402ae9aa1c1abda05f2834b8199c5636d3896a941cdb44a
Meituan
polymarket · 0xa760f69de6da4ad17a9441d95bffd6461a29a337e82d3e2547c3abed0915ed48
Microsoft
polymarket · 0xe9b82e9d2575660feaf771d6bf0433e7a017c7ef73aa5d33225d26572144d956
Alibaba
polymarket · 0xdf57ac2d920591f9d85d62559002e23d13c5765ca5f47dc0ac75040d27d3ca89
ByteDance
polymarket · 0x4bcc4a02e0d5788e72ffe9d5b106e809c842f7b6b650827034f48aec518f4679
Meta
polymarket · 0x198d1d520cf88f5ea7c10aac8bd164bb9982a1aecbf8c00c4497babe1f6acff0
Z.ai
polymarket · 0xce80435aa7f35ac7df1b06edf62488b6c5fb7f0e063a4290eeeb2c9d6676aa05
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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