Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Z.ai
Leader sits at 44% across 15 bound outcomes, runner-up at 42%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Anthropic
Outcomes
15
winner-take-all
Runner-up
42¢
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
52 days
Venue
Polymarket
15 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)
Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Google
0x572d47…97b7
Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Microsoft
0xe9b82e…d956
Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Meituan
0xa760f6…ed48
Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Mistral
0xfdba68…b44a
Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Amazon
0xe60a81…ac15
Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Baidu
0x5d7ebc…4582
Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): xAI
0xb850b1…b101
Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): OpenAI
0x3e2450…296f
Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Anthropic
0xd3b572…12ea
Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Meta
0x198d1d…cff0
Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): DeepSeek
0x8fe8a7…0ffc
Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Z.ai
0xce8043…aa05
Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Moonshot
0x1d5eb2…ace7
Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): ByteDance
0x4bcc4a…4679
Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Alibaba
0xdf57ac…ca89
What moved the line
- May 8OpenAI↓17pp29→12¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Alibaba↓5pp40→35¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Z.ai↓5pp37→32¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Meta↓5pp38→33¢ · Polymarket
- May 7ByteDance↓3pp36→33¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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